Cardiff University | Prifysgol Caerdydd ORCA
Online Research @ Cardiff 
WelshClear Cookie - decide language by browser settings

Expert judgements of sea-level rise at the local scale

Thomas, Merryn Jane, Pidgeon, Nicholas Frank, Whitmarsh, Lorraine E. and Ballinger, Rhoda 2016. Expert judgements of sea-level rise at the local scale. Journal of Risk Research 19 (5) , pp. 664-685. 10.1080/13669877.2015.1043568

[img]
Preview
PDF - Accepted Post-Print Version
Download (646kB) | Preview

Abstract

Whilst local projections of sea-level rise (SLR) are necessary to facilitate targeted climate change adaptation and communication strategies, downscaling from global climate models can be problematic. Here, we use expert probability judgement to elicit a suite of local projections, and associated uncertainties, for future SLR on the Severn Estuary in the south-west of the UK. Eleven experts from a range of policy and academic backgrounds took part in a structured probability elicitation exercise for the years 2050, 2100 and 2200. In addition to the quantitative elicitation, the experts’ reasoning during the task was qualitatively analysed. Quantitative analyses show that although there is consensus that sea levels will rise on the Estuary in future, there is wide variation between judgements and much uncertainty regarding the magnitude of future rise. For example, median estimates of SLR (compared to the 2011 level) range from 9.6 to 40 cm in the year 2050; 20 to 100 cm in 2100; and 35 to 300 cm in 2200. Fifty per cent confidence intervals and ninety per cent confidence intervals vary even more. Qualitative analyses indicate that experts’ judgements may have been influenced by their choice of methods and information sources, the ways in which they thought about the future, and heuristics. The study shows the merits of integrating qualitative and quantitative methods to explore the reasoning behind uncertainty judgements. We conclude that where expert probability judgements are to be used to characterise uncertainty such reasoning should be made explicit.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Earth and Ocean Sciences
Psychology
Water Research Institute (WATER)
Subjects: B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology
G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GC Oceanography
Uncontrolled Keywords: uncertainty, sea-level rise, expert judgement, probability
Publisher: Routledge
ISSN: 1366-9877
Funders: Cardiff University President's Research Scholarship
Last Modified: 12 Oct 2017 07:16
URI: http://orca-mwe.cf.ac.uk/id/eprint/73707

Citation Data

Cited 1 time in Google Scholar. View in Google Scholar

Actions (repository staff only)

Edit Item Edit Item

Full Text Downloads from ORCA for this publication

Top Downloads of this item by Country

Monthly Full Text Downloads of this item

More statistics for this item...