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Uncertainty analysis of statistical downscaling models using Hadley Centre Coupled Model

Samadi, S. Zahra, Wilson, Catherine and Moradkhani, Hamid 2013. Uncertainty analysis of statistical downscaling models using Hadley Centre Coupled Model. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 114 (3-4) , pp. 673-690. 10.1007/s00704-013-0844-x

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Abstract

Regression-based statistical downscaling is a method broadly used to resolve the coarse spatial resolution of general circulation models. Nevertheless, the assessment of uncertainties linked with climatic variables is essential to climate impact studies. This study presents a procedure to characterize the uncertainty in regression-based statistical downscaling of daily precipitation and temperature over a highly vulnerable area (semiarid catchment) in the west of Iran, based on two downscaling models: a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and an artificial neural network (ANN) model. Biases in mean, variance, and wet/dry spells are estimated for downscaled data using vigorous statistical tests for 30 years of observed and downscaled daily precipitation and temperature data taken from the National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis predictors for the years of 1961 to 1990. In the case of daily temperature, uncertainty is estimated by comparing monthly mean and variance of downscaled and observed daily data at a 95 % confidence level. In daily precipitation, downscaling uncertainties were evaluated from comparing monthly mean dry and wet spell lengths and their confidence intervals, cumulative frequency distributions of monthly mean of daily precipitation, and the distributions of monthly wet and dry days for observed and modeled daily precipitation. Results showed that uncertainty in downscaled precipitation is high, but simulation of daily temperature can reproduce extreme events accurately. Finally, this study shows that the SDSM is the most proficient model at reproducing various statistical characteristics of observed data at a 95 % confidence level, while the ANN model is the least capable in this respect. This study attempts to test uncertainties of regression-based statistical downscaling techniques in a semiarid area and therefore contributes to an improvement of the quality of predictions of climate change impact assessment in regions of this type.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Engineering
Subjects: T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Publisher: Springer
ISSN: 0177-798X
Last Modified: 04 Jun 2017 04:51
URI: http://orca-mwe.cf.ac.uk/id/eprint/45798

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