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Intraday jumps and US macroeconomic news announcements

Evans, Kevin Philip 2011. Intraday jumps and US macroeconomic news announcements. Journal of Banking & Finance 35 (10) , pp. 2511-2527. 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.02.018

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Abstract

This paper applies recent non-parametric intraday jump detection procedures to investigate the presence and importance of intraday jumps in US futures markets. More importantly, the paper investigates the extent to which statistically significant intraday jumps are associated with US macroeconomic news announcements. Jumps are prevalent, large and contribute heavily to total daily price variation. Approximately one third of jumps correspond to US macroeconomic news announcements, with pure announcement effects causing large increases in the absolute sizes of jumps and the informational surprise of the announcement explaining large proportions of the jumps. The statistical and economic significance of news-related jumps is confirmed by results that show higher volatility persistence, predictability of lower frequency returns, larger effects on microstructure variables, jump clustering and co-jumps from these jumps versus non-news-related jumps, although there are some interesting variations across asset classes.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Business (Including Economics)
Subjects: E History America > E151 United States (General)
H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
H Social Sciences > HF Commerce
H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Uncontrolled Keywords: Jumps; Realised volatility; Bipower variation; Macro news announcements
Publisher: Elsevier
ISSN: 0378-4266
Last Modified: 04 Jun 2017 03:15
URI: http://orca-mwe.cf.ac.uk/id/eprint/19013

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