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Coastal community resilience assessment framework of maritime disasters management for Saudi Arabia

Almutairi, Arif 2019. Coastal community resilience assessment framework of maritime disasters management for Saudi Arabia. PhD Thesis, Cardiff University.
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Abstract

Saudi Arabia, the largest country in the Arabian Peninsula, is home to 33 million people, 50% of whom live within 100 km of the coastline. Due to its geographical location, bathymetric and tectonic profiles, and exposure to vulnerabilities along petroleum export routes, the country faces increasing risks from both natural and human-induced maritime disasters, especially along the coastlines where significant centres of economic activities are located. Limited studies on coastal resilience in the region and the lack of effective disaster risk management in the country inspired this research to identify maritime disaster risks and impacts and develop a structured framework to assess coastal community resilience through stakeholder consultations. The work was accomplished in the following five stages. First, a systematic literature review identified potential maritime disaster risks at present and in the future. Three types of risks to natural disasters are found: local tsunamis in the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf due to the movements of the Arabian tectonic plate; cyclones and tsunamis originating in the Indian Ocean; and the projected sea level rise and associated impacts because of anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, as the top oil-producing country, the Saudi economy relies on oil export routes, which are prone to human-induced maritime disasters such as oil spills, piracy and terrorism. The review of disaster risk assessment and resilience frameworks revealed that most focused primarily on governance and infrastructure, and their development did not adequately consider stakeholders' views. The review also found gaps in policies and response to disaster risks, some of which were specific to the unique socio-cultural context of Saudi Arabia. Stage two entailed an assessment of stakeholders’ perceptions of the previously identified factors of resilience to maritime disasters. Demographic differences in perception were investigated using principal component analysis. Identified factors were examined by a panel of experts using the Delphi technique in stage three. Two rounds of Delphi consultation helped refine the identified factors further and obtain experts' consensus on their relevance for assessing resilience. The outcome was a three-level framework with constituent indicators, split into four interrelated dimensions: infrastructure, society and economy, environment and climate change, and government and institutions. In stage four, analytic hierarchy process was used to assign a level of importance to each group of indicators using pair-wise comparisons. Weights were computed to enable the aggregation of scores from indicators and dimensions into an overall figure. In the final stage, the resulting Coastal Community Resilience to Maritime Disasters (CCRMD) was validated by comparing it to three well-established frameworks (LDRI, CDRI 3 and CRDSA) that were employed in similar contexts and, by engaging v the experts to verify the relevance, implementation and adaptation of the framework in Saudi Arabia. This research developed a framework for assessing coastal community resilience to maritime disasters, which is comprehensive in terms of its constituent criteria and is more contextual than previous works because of the structured engagement with stakeholders in each development stage. As a regional first, the framework is a step forward in the development of well-managed and established protocols and policies governing the management of risks of maritime disasters in Saudi Arabia and potentially the Gulf.

Item Type: Thesis (PhD)
Date Type: Submission
Status: Unpublished
Schools: Engineering
Uncontrolled Keywords: Maritime disaster; Natural disaster; Man-made disaster; Disaster risk management; Coastal community resilience; Resilience assessment Framework.
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 29 May 2019
Last Modified: 29 May 2019 12:47
URI: http://orca-mwe.cf.ac.uk/id/eprint/122943

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