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The effect of obliquity-driven changes on paleoclimate sensitivity during the late Pleistocene

Köhler, Peter, Knorr, Gregor, Stap, Lennert B., Ganoposlky, Andrey, de Boer, Bas, van de Wal, Roderik S. W., Barker, Stephen and Rüpke, Lars H. 2018. The effect of obliquity-driven changes on paleoclimate sensitivity during the late Pleistocene. Geophysical Research Letters 45 (13) , pp. 6661-6671. 10.1029/2018GL077717

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We reanalyze existing paleodata of global mean surface temperature ΔTg and radiative forcing ΔR of CO2 and land ice albedo for the last 800,000 years to show that a state‐dependency in paleoclimate sensitivity S, as previously suggested, is only found if ΔTg is based on reconstructions, and not when ΔTg is based on model simulations. Furthermore, during times of decreasing obliquity (periods of land ice sheet growth and sea level fall) the multimillennial component of reconstructed ΔTg diverges from CO2, while in simulations both variables vary more synchronously, suggesting that the differences during these times are due to relatively low rates of simulated land ice growth and associated cooling. To produce a reconstruction‐based extrapolation of S for the future, we exclude intervals with strong ΔTg‐CO2 divergence and find that S is less state‐dependent, or even constant state‐independent), yielding a mean equilibrium warming of 2–4 K for a doubling of CO2.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Earth and Ocean Sciences
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
ISSN: 0094-8276
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 22 June 2018
Date of Acceptance: 6 June 2018
Last Modified: 10 Oct 2018 12:35

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