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On reconciling macro and micro energy transport forecasts for strategic decision making in the tanker industry

Abouarghoub, Wessam, Nomikos, Nikos and Petropoulos, Fotios 2018. On reconciling macro and micro energy transport forecasts for strategic decision making in the tanker industry. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review 113 , pp. 225-238. 10.1016/j.tre.2017.10.012

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Abstract

We propose the use of hierarchical structures for forecasting freight earnings. Hierarchical time series approaches are applied in the dry-bulk and tanker markets to identify the most suitable strategy for forecasting freight rates. We argue that decision making for shipping practitioners should be based on forecasts of freight earnings at different hierarchical levels. In other words, different strategic shipping decisions such as operations management, choice of freight charter contract and type of investment should be matched with the appropriate level of forecasts of freight earnings that are aggregated at different macro-levels: operating route, vessel size and type of trade.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Business (Including Economics)
Publisher: Elsevier
ISSN: 1366-5545
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 19 October 2017
Date of Acceptance: 16 October 2017
Last Modified: 29 Jun 2019 14:02
URI: http://orca-mwe.cf.ac.uk/id/eprint/105607

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